CNI News

24 January 2024

Military and political analysts are reviewing about what the Tatmadaw can do next because it has lost many military camps at the current battles. 

The Tatmadaw lost most of the townships in northern Shan State and several townships in Mandalay Region and Rakhine State during the Operation-1027 that was launched by the Three Brotherhood Alliance (MNDAA, TNLA and AA) on 27th October 2023.

If the country was in a state of chaos, it could not be restored and the economy would not improve as well, U Thet Zaw, a political analyst, told CNI News.

When the AA has taken control of a Tatmadaw military camp

" To tell you frankly, we consider whether the Tatmadaw really has enough strength because the rear does not send reinforcements to the front and if the soldiers in front can't fight, they retreat. This kind of pattern happens every now and then. Frankly speaking, we are even worried about the defense of the country. There is only the Chaung Nakhwa camp that the Tatmadaw can defend. All the rest had to retreat. I don't know why the fighting ability of the Tatmadaw has declined so much. If the country is in a state of chaos, it can't be restored and the economy won't improve. The country's situation may get worse." said U Thet Zaw.

The State Administration Council could make a change on 31st January 2024 and the Tatmadaw `could work to stabilize the territories, said a politician. 

The Tatmadaw has retreated from some of its military camps in Chin, Rakhine and Kayah States at present and revolutionary forces are capturing some towns.

The Tatmadaw might restrict food, medicine and travels, Saw Law Kapaw from the Karen Peace Support Network (KPSN) told CNI News.

While seeing Sr-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the State Administration Council

" For the time being, threatening the villages, shooting with heavy weapons, waging air strikes, cutting off food, medicine and transportation - these are the works currently being done by the military council," he said.

The SAC is experiencing military and political crises for the time being and depending on what kind of change will be made on 31st January, the good and the bad of the country would be found.

Saying the NLD was trying to form a government without solving the vote list dispute in the 2020 general election, the Tatmadaw toppled down the NLD government on 1st February 2021 and has taken power after declaring the state of emergency.

The state of emergency will be 3 years old on 1st February 2024 and another six months might be extended.